Saturday, September 20, 2008

The Gambler's Fallacy & Baseball

According to the Gambler's Fallacy a string of the same events shows
that the opposite event is "due" or "bound to happen." 14 flips of a
coin resulting in heads means the 15th is "bound to" be tails because
tails is "due."

So, by parallel reasoning, Brad Lidge is "due" to blow a save since he
has a streak of more than 40 converted going back to last season.

Of course, there's a reason it's a fallacy.

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