The Other Guy

There's little suspense in Phillies' camp this spring.

Who's going to be the number five starter?

Who's will get the last spot in the bullpen? This is quite possibly tied to the first question.

And will the players recovering from injury (especially Brad Lidge and JC Romero) be ready for Opening Day?

That doesn't mean there's little news coming from Clearwater.

Indeed, there's a steady stream of news as Cole Hamels attempts to come back from a mediocre 2009, Placido Polanco settles in at third base, and Doc Halladay gives fans and coaches a view of their ace for the next four years.

One guy crucial to the team's success hasn't been making headlines: JA Happ.

After beginning last season in the bullpen, Happ replaced Chan Ho Park in the rotation and proceeded to have an extremely impressive season, noticed by others with a second place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting.

But sophomore seasons are tough, especially on starters.

You need look no further than Kyle Kendrick, or even Hamels to see that hitters learn a pitcher's tendencies, and the results can be brutal. Many a rookie sensation has punched a ticket back to the farm in their second go at the show.

So, though Happ's spot in the rotation on Opening Day is assured barring a complete meltdown this spring, his continued presence in the number four slot in the rotation is far from certain.

Opening Day rotations rarely hold up unaltered through to September or October. Just consider that 2009's starting five were Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Hamels, and Park versus the September five of Cliff Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Pedro Martinez, and Happ.

But having a solid starting rotation sets up the rest of the team. Solid starters who eat innings keep the bullpen rested, which makes them more effective. It also enables Charlie Manuel to rest his starting eight more frequently because he has confidence that the team doesn't need to score 10 runs every night to win a game.

Happ did everything right in 2009. After a very brief period of being upset about losing out on the starting spot, he accepted his position in the 'pen, performed admirably, and re-adjusted to the rotation when the need arose.

Never was he seen as getting too excited by success or too upset by setbacks (excepting the natural disappointment of losing out to Park for the rotation).

He exuded quiet confidence, and I hope to see an extremely successful follow-up to 2009.

But history indicates that's not likely. So if Kendrick is not able to displace Moyer from the number five spot, there's a very good chance that he'll have another shot midseason.

After that, it gets interesting. Following Kendrick, the next most likely starter would be an aging Jose Contreras, who will almost certainly start the season in the bullpen and be expected to contribute a spot start here and there regardless.

Beyond that, you start looking at Antonio Bastardo, who has a good chance at being the second lefty out of the bullpen, assuming Romero is the first; and then?

I guess Scott Mathieson is a distant possibility, but having moved so many players the past two seasons, there's no obvious backfill.

Independent of Happ and Kendrick's performance, we're likely to rely on several other pitchers for at least 5 starts this season, perhaps more since one of our projected starters is a 47 year-old coming off an injury-plagued and rather ineffective season.

So, though the suspense might be missing, there's still plenty to learn this spring; and we'll need to keep an eye out for all of the other guys toeing the rubber as we're likely to see some of them at the Bank one sunny day this summer.

Starting Cole?

Cole Hamels said something stupid.

"I can't wait for (the season) to end," he said following his latest debacle on Saturday night in Game 3.

Boy, was that dumb. Players aren't supposed to want the the season to just end. They're supposed to want to keep playing, to want to win. Giving up is not part of the game and shouldn't be part of any competitor's vocabulary.

Lots of people (including me when I first read the comments) were pissed off by these remarks. Hamels should have been apologizing for his performance and trying to figure out ways to do better if the need arises, not wishing for the whole thing to be over.

And many people concluded, based on these comments, that Hamels should not start Game 7, should the need arise.

Now, of course, every Phillies fan (myself included) hopes desperately that Charlie Manuel has to make the decision of who to start in Game 7. If only we have to make that hard decision, we'll all be happy.

But should Manuel in fact start Hamels?

Well, let's assume, just for the sake of discussion, that the Phillies win Game 6 without having to use absolutely everyone on their staff. Martinez pitches six innings, Chan Ho Park pitches the seventh, Scott Eyre and Brett Myers combine for the eighth, and Ryan Madson gets the save in the ninth.

That would probably be the best scenario for the Phillies since they wouldn't have to use Hamels, JA Happ, Joe Blanton, or Cliff Lee, all of whom are available because if the Phillies don't win Game 6, there's nothing else to talk about.

In that situation, whom should Charlie start?

Well, look at the options.

Joe Blanton pitched six innings and gave up 4 runs. Not bad, but no one's begging to put him back out there; and especially not on short rest.

JA Happ hasn't had a start since Game 4 against the Rockies, when he gave up three runs in three innings. He's rested because he hasn't seen much action out of the bullpen, but in that limited action he hasn't been impressive, twice walking the first batter he faced.

Cliff Lee would be working on 2 days of rest, so you couldn't expect to get more than three or four innings out of him. And since he probably hasn't pitched under those conditions in a very long time (if ever), you have no idea what to expect from him.

And then there's Hamels, who hasn't pitched well this postseason, and who said something really dumb. But who also won the World Series MVP last year and who has frequently risen to the occasion.

Maybe I'm too simple a mind, but I take Charlie Manuel at his word when he says that the only thing running through his mind when he makes decisions about what to do is winning the game.

So, what's the right move in this hypothetical situation?

Start Cole Hamels in Game 7.

Put him on a short leash. Have Happ warming up before the game and in the bottom of the first inning.... And have Lee warming up in the second, and Blanton in the third. Hell, have Matt Stairs warm up if it'll make you feel any better.

But there's no doubt in my mind that under those circumstances, Manuel should pitch Hamels, stupid comment and all.

Of course, the real hope is that Charlie is forced to make this tough decision in the first place.

And that's the far bigger issue. Starting pitching has absolutely been the deciding factor in every game this series, except for Brad Lidge's meltdown in Game 4.

So, what do you look for in Game 6? One word: Pedro.

One more

As a Phillies fan, of course, I'm happy.

We won.

Now, we have to do it again.

This is not easy, but this is the task before the Phillies.

Cliff Lee again did a good job, and Chase Utley again reminded Brian Cashman why he's going to write a very big check to acquire him as a free agent in a few seasons.

For now, though, he's a Phillie.

And so, we move to NYC.

What should the discerning fan have noticed tonight?

First, the Phillies offense came alive, but Ryan Howard remained silent. At his best, Howard can carry a team for weeks on his offense. His continued struggles are not good, but they also give hope because when he comes alive, it will matter.

Second, the top of the order came alive. Chooch is amazing. Pedro Feliz can hit a fastball as far as almost anyone (except Howard) in baseball, but it's the top of the order that makes this offense run, and tonight for the first time, the top of the order came alive.

Third, Lidge is out. This had to happen, but it's not easy or obvious. Charlie Manuel is a great manager, and a huge part of what makes him great is his ability to put people in positions they are used to where they can succeed. That's what Charlie does. He doesn't ask people to do things they aren't comfortable with.

He decided to remove Lidge from the closer role, and he's not coming back.

Fourth, Utley's refusal to accept a curtain call. As depressed as I was this morning (and the entire city felt the same way), I was never concerned about how the people in the Phillies clubhouse felt. I knew that they'd come out ready to play. And when Chase Utley tied Reggie Jackson's record for home runs in a World Series but refused to take a curtain call, he sent a message to the rest of team. Depression is for pussies. He wants to win, and the rest of the team agrees.

This ain't over. No need to take a bow.

So, on to New York.

It Had to Happen

During this amazing season, two factors marred the Phillies' success, lingering in the background of every discussion of how good this team was: the inconsistency of Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge.

No matter how large a lead in the division standings, people would end every conversation about this club with a "Yeah, but if Lidge..." followed quickly by a "And who knows what you'll get out of Cole..."

For the first two rounds of the playoffs, against the Dodgers and Rockies, the Phillies were able to keep those doubts at bay. It even appeared to some that Charlie Manuel's handling of Lidge down the stretch had revived this imperfect closer, perhaps given him just enough mental rest to reset the clock.

This weekend, we saw those doubts brought to the forefront. Hamels' forgettable 4 1/3 inning performance on Saturday followed by his inexplicable comments that he just wished the season would end was compounded by Lidge's meltdown that turned what would have been one of this city's most memorable come from behind victories into one of its most indellible moments of pain.

Sunday, November 1 will live alongside Black Friday as a memory no one in Philadelphia is able to forget.

Going to the mound tonight is the seemingly unbeatable Cliff Lee, and Phillies fans are hoping that Cole doesn't get his wish just yet. At the very least, we want to be spared the indignation of watching the hated Yankees celebrate on our home field.

Tonight we root for Lee and hold our collective breath if he isn't able to pitch a complete game and we're forced to turn to the bullpen.

Momentum

The old cliche is true. In baseball, momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

And for the Phillies coming off last night's gem by Cliff "I now own Philadelphia's heart" Lee, momentum for the Fightin's takes the mound in the form of 37-year old Pedro Martinez.

There's never been a more dramatic figure in baseball. Before he arrived in Philadelphia in July of this season, I admit that I was not a fan. I respected his stuff and granted that he deserves a Hall of Fame induction when his career finally closes, but I'd never understood all of the drama Pedro creates.

There's just something about this guy. Partly, it's his high jinks when not on the mound. Before he joined the local nine, I was swayed by all of the ESPN footage of Pedro being a bit of a goofball in the dugout and before games. Only now do I appreciate that all of that is on his non-throwing days.

When Pedro's on the mound, he's all business; and he knows that business very well.

Which is another aspect of his game that I've only now fully appreciated.

This man used to have some of the nastiest stuff in sports. He could get away with a mistake because his fastball was just too fast, and his curveball just too deadly for hitters to resist.

Now that the fastball has lost a few mph, and the curve and the change-up aren't what they used to be, you can really see just how intelligent a pitcher he is (and probably always has been). Pedro knows how to beat batters with his mind.

That's what he'll have to rely on tonight against an incredibly powerful Yankees line-up, and that's also what makes Charlie Manuel's decision to start Pedro perfect.

After the obvious decision to start Cliff Lee in Game 1, it was a real conundrum of what to do in Game 2. This year (including this postseason) Cole Hamels hasn't been the same guy who won the World Series MVP last year, but he did in fact win that MVP award.

So, shouldn't he, a pitcher in his prime, be the number two starter in the World Series?

Pedro pitched a brilliant game against the Dodgers in the NLCS, but that was the first time he'd gone deep into a game since the middle of September, and it was in 80-degree, sunny Southern California. Tonight, Pedro will be pitching in weather predicted to be in the mid-50s (and dropping).

And that's where his mental advantage comes into play.

Cole Hamels has had several difficulties this year, but the most glaring one in the postseason has been his inability to brush off mistakes (either his or those of the fielders behind him). Instead, he seems to dwell on those errors, and tries to do too much to compensate for them. That leads to another mistake, which then snowballs.

Tonight, with an opposing pitcher (AJ Burnett) known equally well for dominating lineups and having severe meltdowns on the mound (having led the majors in wild pitches this season), the Phillies need a rock on the mound.

Let the Phillies line-up get into Burnett's head and they'll be just fine.

Let this New York crowd get into your own head, and there will be trouble.

So, if Pedro Martinez could avoid a complete meltdown while pitching for the Boston Red Sox with 50,000 fans in old Yankee stadium chanting "Who's your daddy?" in 2004, then I think tonight's crowd and, more importantly, tonight's Yankees' line-up is unlikely to faze him.

Great Start

What can you say about Cliff Lee?

A complete game, 1-run performance. Through most of the night, he simply made the Yankees look silly.

The image that best captures tonight was the Lee nonchalantly catching the baby popup from Johnny Damon. Lee was completely in control.

And, by the way, the best way to deal with a shaky bullpen is to get a complete game from your starter.

This performance will definitely go down in Phillies history.

Fortunately, the Phillies lineup also came through. Chase Utely's two homeruns should put to rest the rumors of his alleged injury, at least for the duration of this series.

Of course, this is October, and even more so than during the regular season, the cliche holds true. Momentum is defined by the next starting pitcher. Tomorrow night that means Pedro.

Pedro Martinez returning to the stadium where the fans will remember their "Who's your daddy?" chant from the 2004 ALCS.

Worth A Thousand Words

From Tony Auth at The Philadelphia Inquirer.