Werth was right

There's a minor controversy surrounding a play on Thursday night.

With two outs in the 12th inning, Jayson Werth ran toward the foul line in right field trying to catch a fly ball. The ball hooked foul into the stands, and Werth pursued it.

A fan caught the ball and in catching the ball, the fan clearly prevented Werth from recording the final out of the inning.

On TV, Jayson Werth was shown saying something angrily toward the fan.

He was right.

The fan appeared to be a father with his son sitting next to him, and ordinarily I'd applaud a very nice catch by a fan, but this was not acceptable.

Fans need to know where they sit.

That sounds obvious, but it's not, unless you're a baseball geek like me.

For most people who just like baseball and show up at a game, it's not obvious that they need to pay attention to where they sit.

For those of us who care, you need to note this the minute you walk in the park.

So, when this gentleman walked into the stadium, he should have noticed where he was sitting.

And Jayson Werth should be forgiven (indeed, to my mind praised, for his passion) for saying something (I assume the comments were insulting) about this man's behavior.

The Pudge Effect

I've been a huge fan of Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez since he first broke into the big leagues with the Texas Rangers.

This guy is definitely headed to the Hall of Fame. He's the greatest catcher I've seen, including Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza in that group.

And amazingly, he's somehow not been universally acclaimed to the extent I believe he deserves.

Separately, and independently, I've been telling a friend of mine in Washington DC that although his Nationals have been pathetic, and that they were gonna continue to suck this year, that in the very near future I fully expected this team to be a significant factor in the very near future, perhaps even by next year.

Well, apparently, I was wrong.

The Nats are going to be a significant factor this year.

I'm a bit surprised.

The Nats line-up has been powerful for several years now. The pitching and defense, however, have been pitiful.

I attribute this in part to Pudge.

Pudge is an amazing ball player. He hits. He spent 12 straight years (perhaps more) as the best defensive catcher in the history of baseball. And he has demonstrated over and over again that he can lead a pitching staff to higher success.

Compare these two stories about yesterday's game between the Washington Nationals and New York Mets. I see Pudge sparkling through every comment by a Nats' player and lacking from the Mets' comments.

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100510&content_id=9941746&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=nym

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100510&content_id=9941742&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=was

Moyer's the Fifth Starter

Barring a trade or injury, Jamie Moyer is going to be the Philadelphia Phillies' fifth starter on the opening day roster.

The "competition" this spring for the fifth spot has been between Kyle Kendrick and Moyer. The common wisdom and explicitly expressed view of Rich Dubee, who has some say in the matter as the pitching coach, is that to win the job, Kendrick has to significantly outperform Moyer.

A tie goes to Moyer in this race. And in fact, even a loss by less than 10 yards in a 40-yard dash goes to Moyer.

Why?

Well, consider the options. Let's say you put Kendrick in the rotation. What do you do with Moyer?

Send him to the bullpen.

OK, but do you really want to do that? In the bullpen, Moyer becomes the 12th guy who gets an occasional spot start. You're not able to use him as a situational lefty because of how long he needs to warm up and the fact that he won't be able to pitch on consecutive days, and at his age, you have to wonder how much durability he'd have on a reliever's uncertain schedule.

Much to his credit, Moyer never suggested that his injury in September and the subsequent surgeries and complications were due to the shift to the bullpen; but every fan wondered. And certainly the Phillies have to wonder how long Moyer would hold up in the irregular role.

Note also that I have not mentioned at all the question of whether you really want to pay $8 million to your 12th man in the 'pen. I take Ruben Amaro, Jr. at his word when he says that money will not enter into the decision. But to put it in perspective, the Phillies weren't even willing to re-sign Clay Condrey as their 12th guy when his price tag went above $250K.

Now consider Kendrick in the 'pen. Though neither man has extensive bullpen experience, you have to think that the young Kendrick is much more suited to the role. And as a classic sinkerballer, Kendrick would seem to be a good fit as the guy you bring in to get the doubleplay grounder to short when you're in a jam.

In addition, the move on Opening Day doesn't determine your roster in September. Assume Moyer stinks up the joint in April and May (which I don't expect to happen), then there's still time to move Kendrick into the rotation.

Finally, there's David Herndon. Herndon is the Rule 5 draft pick from the Angels who has been stellar out of the bullpen this spring. Because he's a Rule 5 pick, Herndon must either remain on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Angels, who would probably take him because of his stellar spring with the Phillies.

Herndon appears to be a solid pick to start the season in the 'pen because of the injuries to JC Romero and Brad Lidge.

Assume he does well in the first few weeks, and the Phillies want to hang on to him when Lidge and Romero come back. They could always send Kendrick (who still has minor league options remaining) to Triple A to create a spot for Herndon in the majors while they figure out whom they want to keep. They couldn't do that with Moyer.

And you really don't want to give Kendrick the number five spot, only to option him to Triple A a few weeks later so you can hold on to Herndon (in the hopes that he pans out) and then move a 47-year old Moyer from the 'pen into the rotation.

That's just bizarre.

No, it's much cleaner to keep Moyer in the rotation, send Kendrick to the 'pen, get a few appearances from Herndon in the regular season, figure out whether he's a keeper, and then make your decisions about the long-term, which might necessitate sending Kendrick to Triple A for a while as things sort themselves out.

I started all of this by saying, "Barring a trade..." and that's a crucial caveat. Moyer is a very attractive pitcher for lots of big league clubs where he'd be slotted into the number 5 (or even 4) slot into the rotation in the blink of an eye. And several relievers, including the newly emergent Herndon, might be moved as clubs realize that they're bullpen isn't as deep as it seemed in December.

So, there's a ton of action still possible, but barring a trade or injury, Jamie Moyer will be the Phillies fifth starter on opening day.

The Other Guy

There's little suspense in Phillies' camp this spring.

Who's going to be the number five starter?

Who's will get the last spot in the bullpen? This is quite possibly tied to the first question.

And will the players recovering from injury (especially Brad Lidge and JC Romero) be ready for Opening Day?

That doesn't mean there's little news coming from Clearwater.

Indeed, there's a steady stream of news as Cole Hamels attempts to come back from a mediocre 2009, Placido Polanco settles in at third base, and Doc Halladay gives fans and coaches a view of their ace for the next four years.

One guy crucial to the team's success hasn't been making headlines: JA Happ.

After beginning last season in the bullpen, Happ replaced Chan Ho Park in the rotation and proceeded to have an extremely impressive season, noticed by others with a second place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting.

But sophomore seasons are tough, especially on starters.

You need look no further than Kyle Kendrick, or even Hamels to see that hitters learn a pitcher's tendencies, and the results can be brutal. Many a rookie sensation has punched a ticket back to the farm in their second go at the show.

So, though Happ's spot in the rotation on Opening Day is assured barring a complete meltdown this spring, his continued presence in the number four slot in the rotation is far from certain.

Opening Day rotations rarely hold up unaltered through to September or October. Just consider that 2009's starting five were Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Hamels, and Park versus the September five of Cliff Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Pedro Martinez, and Happ.

But having a solid starting rotation sets up the rest of the team. Solid starters who eat innings keep the bullpen rested, which makes them more effective. It also enables Charlie Manuel to rest his starting eight more frequently because he has confidence that the team doesn't need to score 10 runs every night to win a game.

Happ did everything right in 2009. After a very brief period of being upset about losing out on the starting spot, he accepted his position in the 'pen, performed admirably, and re-adjusted to the rotation when the need arose.

Never was he seen as getting too excited by success or too upset by setbacks (excepting the natural disappointment of losing out to Park for the rotation).

He exuded quiet confidence, and I hope to see an extremely successful follow-up to 2009.

But history indicates that's not likely. So if Kendrick is not able to displace Moyer from the number five spot, there's a very good chance that he'll have another shot midseason.

After that, it gets interesting. Following Kendrick, the next most likely starter would be an aging Jose Contreras, who will almost certainly start the season in the bullpen and be expected to contribute a spot start here and there regardless.

Beyond that, you start looking at Antonio Bastardo, who has a good chance at being the second lefty out of the bullpen, assuming Romero is the first; and then?

I guess Scott Mathieson is a distant possibility, but having moved so many players the past two seasons, there's no obvious backfill.

Independent of Happ and Kendrick's performance, we're likely to rely on several other pitchers for at least 5 starts this season, perhaps more since one of our projected starters is a 47 year-old coming off an injury-plagued and rather ineffective season.

So, though the suspense might be missing, there's still plenty to learn this spring; and we'll need to keep an eye out for all of the other guys toeing the rubber as we're likely to see some of them at the Bank one sunny day this summer.

Starting Cole?

Cole Hamels said something stupid.

"I can't wait for (the season) to end," he said following his latest debacle on Saturday night in Game 3.

Boy, was that dumb. Players aren't supposed to want the the season to just end. They're supposed to want to keep playing, to want to win. Giving up is not part of the game and shouldn't be part of any competitor's vocabulary.

Lots of people (including me when I first read the comments) were pissed off by these remarks. Hamels should have been apologizing for his performance and trying to figure out ways to do better if the need arises, not wishing for the whole thing to be over.

And many people concluded, based on these comments, that Hamels should not start Game 7, should the need arise.

Now, of course, every Phillies fan (myself included) hopes desperately that Charlie Manuel has to make the decision of who to start in Game 7. If only we have to make that hard decision, we'll all be happy.

But should Manuel in fact start Hamels?

Well, let's assume, just for the sake of discussion, that the Phillies win Game 6 without having to use absolutely everyone on their staff. Martinez pitches six innings, Chan Ho Park pitches the seventh, Scott Eyre and Brett Myers combine for the eighth, and Ryan Madson gets the save in the ninth.

That would probably be the best scenario for the Phillies since they wouldn't have to use Hamels, JA Happ, Joe Blanton, or Cliff Lee, all of whom are available because if the Phillies don't win Game 6, there's nothing else to talk about.

In that situation, whom should Charlie start?

Well, look at the options.

Joe Blanton pitched six innings and gave up 4 runs. Not bad, but no one's begging to put him back out there; and especially not on short rest.

JA Happ hasn't had a start since Game 4 against the Rockies, when he gave up three runs in three innings. He's rested because he hasn't seen much action out of the bullpen, but in that limited action he hasn't been impressive, twice walking the first batter he faced.

Cliff Lee would be working on 2 days of rest, so you couldn't expect to get more than three or four innings out of him. And since he probably hasn't pitched under those conditions in a very long time (if ever), you have no idea what to expect from him.

And then there's Hamels, who hasn't pitched well this postseason, and who said something really dumb. But who also won the World Series MVP last year and who has frequently risen to the occasion.

Maybe I'm too simple a mind, but I take Charlie Manuel at his word when he says that the only thing running through his mind when he makes decisions about what to do is winning the game.

So, what's the right move in this hypothetical situation?

Start Cole Hamels in Game 7.

Put him on a short leash. Have Happ warming up before the game and in the bottom of the first inning.... And have Lee warming up in the second, and Blanton in the third. Hell, have Matt Stairs warm up if it'll make you feel any better.

But there's no doubt in my mind that under those circumstances, Manuel should pitch Hamels, stupid comment and all.

Of course, the real hope is that Charlie is forced to make this tough decision in the first place.

And that's the far bigger issue. Starting pitching has absolutely been the deciding factor in every game this series, except for Brad Lidge's meltdown in Game 4.

So, what do you look for in Game 6? One word: Pedro.

One more

As a Phillies fan, of course, I'm happy.

We won.

Now, we have to do it again.

This is not easy, but this is the task before the Phillies.

Cliff Lee again did a good job, and Chase Utley again reminded Brian Cashman why he's going to write a very big check to acquire him as a free agent in a few seasons.

For now, though, he's a Phillie.

And so, we move to NYC.

What should the discerning fan have noticed tonight?

First, the Phillies offense came alive, but Ryan Howard remained silent. At his best, Howard can carry a team for weeks on his offense. His continued struggles are not good, but they also give hope because when he comes alive, it will matter.

Second, the top of the order came alive. Chooch is amazing. Pedro Feliz can hit a fastball as far as almost anyone (except Howard) in baseball, but it's the top of the order that makes this offense run, and tonight for the first time, the top of the order came alive.

Third, Lidge is out. This had to happen, but it's not easy or obvious. Charlie Manuel is a great manager, and a huge part of what makes him great is his ability to put people in positions they are used to where they can succeed. That's what Charlie does. He doesn't ask people to do things they aren't comfortable with.

He decided to remove Lidge from the closer role, and he's not coming back.

Fourth, Utley's refusal to accept a curtain call. As depressed as I was this morning (and the entire city felt the same way), I was never concerned about how the people in the Phillies clubhouse felt. I knew that they'd come out ready to play. And when Chase Utley tied Reggie Jackson's record for home runs in a World Series but refused to take a curtain call, he sent a message to the rest of team. Depression is for pussies. He wants to win, and the rest of the team agrees.

This ain't over. No need to take a bow.

So, on to New York.

It Had to Happen

During this amazing season, two factors marred the Phillies' success, lingering in the background of every discussion of how good this team was: the inconsistency of Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge.

No matter how large a lead in the division standings, people would end every conversation about this club with a "Yeah, but if Lidge..." followed quickly by a "And who knows what you'll get out of Cole..."

For the first two rounds of the playoffs, against the Dodgers and Rockies, the Phillies were able to keep those doubts at bay. It even appeared to some that Charlie Manuel's handling of Lidge down the stretch had revived this imperfect closer, perhaps given him just enough mental rest to reset the clock.

This weekend, we saw those doubts brought to the forefront. Hamels' forgettable 4 1/3 inning performance on Saturday followed by his inexplicable comments that he just wished the season would end was compounded by Lidge's meltdown that turned what would have been one of this city's most memorable come from behind victories into one of its most indellible moments of pain.

Sunday, November 1 will live alongside Black Friday as a memory no one in Philadelphia is able to forget.

Going to the mound tonight is the seemingly unbeatable Cliff Lee, and Phillies fans are hoping that Cole doesn't get his wish just yet. At the very least, we want to be spared the indignation of watching the hated Yankees celebrate on our home field.

Tonight we root for Lee and hold our collective breath if he isn't able to pitch a complete game and we're forced to turn to the bullpen.