Roy Halladay

The name says it all. Fans drool uncontrollably at the prospect of adding Doc Halladay to the top of the Phillies rotation.

And I admit that I'm as excited by the idea as everyone else, but I'm not willing to ignore the cost completely.

Trade Kyle Drabek? Sure.

Sorry, but I'm interested in another trophy, and 20 years from now, when we're looking at the third trophy in the Phillies case, we'll talk about how tough it was to give away the future Hall-of-Famer Drabek, but that it was the right decision to shore up an unreliable rotation.

I don't doubt that Drabek is as good as the press and Phillies staff seem to think he is. I do, however, think that when you're projecting the future of a prospect with a Tommy John surgery under his belt, you have to be cautious. Doc Halladay is the closest thing to a sure-thing there is. For him, I'd trade Drabek.

Trade Dominic Brown? Sure.

Five tools at Single A have a habit of turning into one or two tools in the bigs, if they ever make it. Again, I'm accepting all of the evaluations as accurate, I'm just not willing to give up on Halladay to keep a possibility that far from the starting line-up.

Trade J.A. Happ? No way.

I understand Happ's value as an older player is significantly lower than Drabek's to baseball professionals, but this guy is having a phenomenal season. Adding Halladay to a rotation that features last year's World Series MVP and this season's Rookie of the Year candidate, comes as close to making another parade down Broad Street a reality a surething as you can get.

I also keep coming back to the differential. What's the added value of Halladay over Happ in the rotation?

During the regular season, you're talking maybe one or two aditional wins. And given how pathetic the rest of the division is, that's not likely to make difference in winning the division or affect seeding for the postseason.

So, the trade is solely for the postseason.

OK, then let's copare the rotations. In the postseason, you're only going to roll out four starters barring injury. So we're comparing

Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ
vs.
Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer/Martinez

I love Jamie Moyer, think he's been an amazing player. He adds real value in the clubhouse and in the dugout. And lately there have been glimers of him regaining some of the form he had last year.

But no pitcher in baseball is more reliant on the umpire behind the plate. Give Jamie an extra inch inside and out, and he's a completely different pitcher. I'm actually surprised that Charlie hasn't started juggling his rotation precisely to align Moyer with certain umps.

You can't rely on that.

Will Pedro Martinez return to the majors with a chip on his shoulder and an extra five miles an hour on his fastball? Not likely.

I see a significant difference between Moyer and Happ come postseason. So, if the Phillies can add Halladay without giving up Happ, do it. Ship Drabek, Brown, and a few additional bodies north of the border. Just bring back a horse who's willing to sit at the front of the parade.

Werth's toes

A friend of mine who is not a baseball fan claims that whenever Jayson Werth stands in the batter's box with his front foot up on his toes that Werth has trouble. By contrast, when his left foot is flat (my friend claims), Werth does well.

I've been meanign to check this out for a while, and tonight I remembered. In his first at bat, Werth was up on his toes, and he struck out.

Let's see how this theory plays out.

Second at-bat: Up on the toes, flyball out to left field.

Third at-bat: Up on the toes, line drive out to left field.

Fourth at-bat: Up on the toes, line drive double to right field.

Fifth at-bat: Up on the toes, strike out looking.

Bad baseball

I'm not a sabermatrician by any stretch of the imagination. I think hardcore mathematical analysis of baseball can improve our understanding of the game, but most sabermetric analyses I see make the numerical fallacy, as I call it.

The fallacy is moving from the importance of numerical analysis to the belief that only things that can be analyzed numerically matter.

Watching the Nationals play against my Phillies reminds me of this

I don't know what numerical analysis can capture the sheer ineptitude of this team. They're just ugly to watch, and I don't mean they aren't handsome people. I mean the way they play baseball is aesthetically offensive. Seeing Adam Dunn throw an empty hand toward the infield after stumbling back to the wall and failing to make a catch. This is just not pretty, and there has to be an effect on the results. Even someone who knows nothing about baseball needes to watch only a few innings of this team before they realize that this is not a good ball club.

And until sabermatricians are able to capture these inherently non-numerical factors into consideration, their understanding of the game will always be incomplete.

The third lineup

Last night's game convinced me that Jamie Moyer is the most umpire-dependent pitcher in baseball. Instead of looking at his (or the opponent's) lineup to determine the pitching rotation, Charlie Manuel should look at the umpire's schedule to determine when Jamie is pitching.

I don't know why Jamie hasn't yet (after a mere 22 years) gotten to the point that Tom Glavine, Gregg Maddux, and others achieved where umps automatically gave them the inside and outside corner, but for whatever reason, Jamie hasn't. And without pitches on those corners being called strikes, Jamie cannot be successful. Last night it was the (not) called third strike to Wes Helms that cost Moyer and the Phillies (though the two walks before that were even bigger).

Ruiz hurt?

I can only assume Carlos Ruiz is hurt. Otherwise, there's no explanation for why Chris Coste would start last night and again this afternoon.

In fact, I assumed Coste was starting last night primarily because Charlie Manuel wanted Chooch to start to this afternoon.

So, I don't know how serious this is, but I'll bet money that after the game, we'll find out Chooch is getting some rest because he's tweaked his oblique.

On the bright side, Coste's double today continues his improving offense. After looking just awful the first month of the season, he's starting to put together some nice at-bats.

I noted before that his stance changed from last season. Previously, he was nearly doubled over at the plate with his legs straight. This season, he was crouching at the plate. Beginning last night, he seems to be moving back closer to his old stance. His legs aren't completely straight, but he's standing taller.

Whether this has any connection to his improvement, I have no idea. But I'm happy with the improvement.

Two Important Firsts

In today's game, the Phillies are going for two (or rather three) important firsts for this season.

1. First game where the starting pitcher did not give up a home run. (already achieved)
2. First game where the Phillies did not have to come from behind for the win.
3. First game where the Phillies pitchers as a whole do not give up a home run.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Replacing Harry? Impossible. So, don't even try.

Although I've had a few conversations about who will be the next lead broadcaster for the Phillies, I haven't wanted to organize my thoughts enough for post (even a brief one). Instead, I wanted to spend a few days casually reading through the remembrances and obituaries; and thinking back on my own fond memories, including listening to the replay on radio of the shootout in Chicago (1979's 23-22 victory) as Harry described the action.

And of the pieces I've read so far (the sheer volume of the memories speaks to how beloved Harry was), the ones by Doug Glanville in the NYT and ESPN's Jayson Stark are my favorites.

I'm willing to contemplate the future without Harry in the booth. I'm just not willing to look forward to it.

Of the current announcers, it's clear that Tom McCarthy has the voluble personality, easygoing manner, and love of the game to be successful for a long time. Indeed, Fox Sports has already identified him as an upcoming star by tapping him for national broadcasts. And that's great. He'll probably have a very fruitful career, but I just don't see him as a Philadelphia guy, even if he stays here for 40 years. Maybe it's his time with the Mets. Maybe it's his easygoing, open personality.

We're just not as nice as Tom McCarthy is seems to be. And that niceness will always seem to a Philadelphian (and especially a Phillies fan) like a lack of passion. So, he feels like a bit of an outsider to this Phillies fan. Of course, time can change that perception. And certainly, Tom's pairing with Gary Mathews on the telecasts has dramatically improved Sarge's performance in the booth.

Chris Wheeler is now the elder statesman of the group, and I'm hopeful that somehow all of this will dampen the (to my mind) inexplicable venom he has generated among a small group of fans. I'm not a huge fan of Wheeler, but I respect his willingness to call out a player who's underproducing, and I refuse to blame him for not having the same rapport with Harry that Richie Ashburn did. That's just not fair to Wheeler. As for succeeding Harry, well, obviously that won't be Wheeler. First, he's a color guy who sometimes does play-by-play. Second, that small minority of fans who hate Wheeler is very vocal, and especially following such a loss, the Phillies family doesn't need a feud.

In the interim, I expect McCarthy and Wheeler to pair up for the 7th-9th stint, but long-term neither mantel will truly inherit Harry's spot.

There's been talk, of course, of bringing in Harry's son, Todd (who calls the Tampa Bay Rays' games), and while baseball announcing has become something of a family business in the past few years, I don't know whether Todd would even be interested in the position. It certainly would be a characteristic move by the Phillies to keep things within the family, but I've always thought sons who follow in their fathers' footsteps too closely are burdened with the dual curse of being loved by half the fans solely for reminding them of the father and being written off by the other half as the beneficiary of nepotism who never quite measures up to the old man.

The Phillies might, of course, go out and scour the country for a new voice, finding some youngster from a town as unlikely as Naperville, IL, to become the next voice of the Fightin's.

I do hope, however, that they'll give consideration to the remaining duo inside their current staple of broadcasters. Scott Frankze and Larry Andersen certainly have all the makings of a new generation of Harry and Whitey. The grizzled veteran who isn't afraid to speak his mind with a quick wit seems to thrive on the radio with Franzke's youthful exuberance. Great friendships (especially professional ones conducted largely in public) take time to develop, and this pair seems to have done just that over the past few seasons.

Of course, I haven't seen them broadcast a televised game together, and many (if not most) fans don't listen to the radio; so this pairing is relatively unknown in the area. But I'd like to see the Phillies try out this pair in prime time. If it works, all's the better. And if it fails, well, I hardly think Whitey or Harry would have objected to the attempt to re-create one of the great professional relationships in baseball broadcasting history.